AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA FROM 1986 to 2021

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between agricultural production and economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. One of the major concerns of developing countries, including Nigeria, is the attainment of a stable and satisfactory economic growth. However, over the decades, the value of real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) has been low, and the actual growth rate of RGDP has frequently fallen below the targeted growth rate, suggesting that the economy may be growing below its potential. This declining trend in Nigeria’s economic growth in Nigeria has become a cause for concern and necessitates policy intervention. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between disaggregated agricultural production and economic growth in Nigeria. Annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Development indicators were utilised. The study adopted Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach to estimate the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Results indicate that all four components of agricultural production - crop, livestock, forestry and fishery – have a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth in both the short-run and long-run. Among these, forestry, fishery and livestock production made a greater impact than crop production. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the government incentivizes investments in these sub-sectors rather than placing excessive emphasis on crop production. This strategy could attract private sector investment, enhance employment opportunities, growing the GDP, and increase food production.